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CHEAT SHEET: MISSOURI: The Pennsylvania Of The Midwest
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'02 SENATE RACE '04 GOV RACE
TALENT 935,032 49.8% BLUNT 1,382,419 50.8%
CARNAHAN 913,778 48.7% MCCASKILL 1,301,442 47.9%
'04 PRESIDENTIAL '00 PRESIDENTIAL
BUSH 1,455,713 53.3% BUSH 1,189,924 50.4%
KERRY 1,259,171 46.1% GORE 1,111,138 47.1%
Vital Facts
Union households: 26%
White religious right: 23%
Self ID'd Evangelical: 35%
% Catholic: 22%
% AA statewide: 11.2%
Current unemployment rate, 9/06: 5.0%
Personal income growth rate rank: 9/50
% veterans statewide: 14.2%
Number of Iraq war dead: 48
Guard/Reserve deployment: 2,106
Population growth since '00: +200K
Data from US Census Bureau, Alamanac of American Politics, DoD
**Union household = percentage, in '04 exit polls, reporting that they live in a household with a member of a union who is a registered voter
Keys to Victory
First, watch these large counties where the winning margins haven't exceeded 10 points consistently: Boone, Jackson, Jefferson, Ray, Saline. Note, also, the increasing concentration of Dem voters. They're in and around St. Louis at the eastern edge of the state and in and around Kansas City on the western edge of the state. McCaskill's '04 strength came from St. Louis city, St. Louis County and Jackson Co. Blunt, in '04, carried the suburbs of St. Louis and narrowly carried the Kansas City suburbs. Blunt's margin of victory helped by a superior national Republican turnout operation in the micropolitian towns between the cities. To simplify, think of MO in three pieces: the four urban voting jurisdictions, the metro collar counties (comprising about 20 percent of the vote), and those small micropoliti.
Geographic Vote Share In '04 Exit Polls (GOV)
Category % Total McCaskill Blunt
St. Louis City 6 80 19
St. Louis Suburb 32 51 48
Kansas City Area 20 56 42
Southwest 19 33 66
North / S.E. 24 42 56
Watch These Margins
Democratic margins in Kansas City
'00 Pres '02 SEN '04 GOV '04 Pres
+58K +43K +74K +69K
Democratic margins in St. Louis/St. Louis Co.
'00 Pres '02 SEN '04 GOV '04 Pres
+105K +79K +139K +140K
The Bush Juggernaut
Counties won in '02 by Jean Carnahan and won in '04 by Pres. Bush:
All figures approx. and rounded to nearest tenth
NAME '02 DEM SEN margin (rounded) '04 GOP PRES margin (rounded)
Bates + 100 + 1000
Clark + 50 + 100
Clay + 3200 + 6000
Clinton + 400 + 1000
Jackson + 4400 + 1300
Jefferson + 3500 + 600
Linn + 200 + 1000
Mississippi + 100 + 600
New Madrid + 280 + 600
Pemiscot + 500 + 15
Pike + 130 + 600
Ray + 1500 + 600
Saline + 800 + 1000
Washington + 1000 + 100
Counties won in '04 by McCaskill that were also won by Pres. Bush:
All figures approx. and rounded to nearest tenth
NAME MCCASKILL MARGIN BUSH MARGIN
Boone + 2800 + 200
Clay + 5000 + 6000
Clinton + 400 + 1000
Jackson + 6000K + 15000
Jefferson + 10 + 500
Mississippi + 100 + 600
New Madrid + 300 + 400
Pemiscot + 600 + 15
Platte + 800 + 5000
Ray + 500 + 600
Saline + 400 + 1000
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